Live Nation just ran up to a fresh high of $168.54 on Friday — then gave almost all of it back, closing at $162.67. That kind of intraday rejection, on nearly double the average volume, is exactly what shooting stars are designed to flag. The question: Was Friday's session a one-day overreaction, or did the market just show us where the ceiling is?
What We're Looking At
Thursday's candle was a modest green session: open $155.78, close $157.46, nothing dramatic. Then Friday gapped up to open at $161.25 — already $3.79 above Thursday's close — rallied hard to $168.54, and reversed sharply to close at just $162.67. That leaves a small green real body of $1.42 sitting at the bottom of a $7.79 total range, with a towering $5.87 upper shadow and a tiny $0.50 lower shadow. Classic shooting star shape: small body low, long shadow high, buyers rejected.
The Quality Check
Not all shooting stars are created equal. Three measurements separate this one from noise.
First, the shadow-to-body ratio. Bigalow's criteria require the upper shadow to be at least twice the body length. LYV's upper shadow ($5.87) is 4.1 times the real body ($1.42) — more than double the minimum threshold. The rejection wasn't borderline. It was decisive.
Second, the gap. Nison writes that an ideal shooting star "has a real body that gaps away from the prior real body." Friday's open of $161.25 gapped $3.79 above Thursday's close of $157.46 — that's a clean gap up that adds potency to the signal. Buyers were already eager at the open, and they still couldn't hold the highs.
Third, volume. Friday printed 6.89M shares against Thursday's 3.76M — an 83% spike. The upper shadow accounts for 75% of the session's total range, and that rejection happened on the heaviest volume in over two weeks.
Why This Setup Gets Attention
Context is what separates a shooting star worth watching from one you ignore. LYV's RSI(14) sits at 70.57 — right at the overbought line. Stochastic %K (82.23) and %D (85.02) are both above 80, confirming stretched momentum. Price closed 9% above the 20-day SMA at $149.21 and 12% above the 50-day SMA at $145.50.
The prior trend makes this textbook. LYV rallied from $140.96 on February 9 to Friday's intraday high of $168.54 — a 19.6% move in eight sessions. Shooting stars carry the most weight at the top of sharp advances, and this one arrived right on cue.
What to Watch
Bearish confirmation: A close below Friday's open at $161.25 — Bigalow notes a gap down with a lower close is the strongest validation.
Invalidation: A close above $168.54 negates the shooting star entirely and suggests buyers absorbed the supply at the highs.
The Lesson
A shooting star earns its name from where it appears, not just what it looks like. The same candle shape in a sideways market is just a long upper shadow — interesting, not actionable. LYV's 4.1x shadow ratio, gap-up entry, and 83% volume spike after a 19.6% eight-day rally is what makes this a shooting star worth studying.
The Candlestick Hit teaches pattern recognition through real-time market examples. This is educational content, not trading advice.